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内蒙古十一选五遗漏数据 www.jyvks.com.cn,USPresident-electDonaldTrumppausesashetalkstomembersofthemediaatMar-a-LagoestateinPalmBeach,Florida,US,December21,2016.[Photo/Agencies]DonaldTrumpsaidhelikestobeunpredictable.Indeed,hehasbeensuccessfulinconfusingenemies,alliesandpartnersalike.HesaidChinahasstolenAmericanjobsandthreatenedtoslapa45percentimporttariffonChinesegoods.ButaChinesespokesmanhasalreadymadeitclearthatiftheone-Chinaprincipleisnotupheld,thedevelopmentofChina-USrelationsandbilateralcooperationinimportantareasisoutofthequestion.TodayChina'seconomyalreadyaccountsfor63percentofthatoftheUnitedStates.ShouldTrumpinitiateatradewarbetweenthetwolargesteconomiesintheworld,Chinawon'tbetheonlyloser.However,therearethingsthatcouldputChinaandtheUSonacollisioncourse.Thefearisthatincidents,suchasaChineseJ-8fighter'scollisionwithaUSEP-3in2001orthestandoffbetweentheUSNSImpeccableandtheUSSCowpenswithChinesevesselsin2009and2013,andthedeadlycloseencounterbetweenaChineseJ-11BfighterwithaUSNP-8Poseidonin2014,couldseethetwogiants"sleepwalking"intoawar.AnincidentbetweenChinaandJapanaroundthedisputedislandsintheEastChinaSeaorintheiroverlappingAirDefenseIdentificationZonescouldalsoleadtoaconflictthatinvolvestheUSasJapan'sally.Whetheritacknowledgesitornot,theUSisdeclining-otherwiseTrumpwouldnotneedtodeclarehewantsto"makeAmericagreatagain".And,likeitornot,Chinaisstillrising,althoughitseconomyhasslowed.ThefirstChineseaircraftcarrierhasbecomeoperationalandasecondoneisintheworks.TheUSneedstodosomesoul-searchingonasimplequestion:HowmanymilitarysecretsdoesChinahavethatjustifiestheUS'dailyintelligencesurveillanceandreconnaissancethathaslastedfordecades.ThisistherootcauseoftheincidentswhichoccurinChina'sexclusiveeconomiczonesorintheSouthChinaSea.Inotherwords,ifthereisnoUSintelligencesurveillanceandreconnaissance,therewillnotbeanincident.True,thetwocountrieshavesignedTheRulesofBehaviorforSafetyofMaritimeandAirEncounterbetweenChinaandtheUS-amilestoneinconfidencebuildingandavoidingacrisis,andpledgedtodomoreexercisestofamiliarizethemselveswithgoodseamanshipandairmanship.ButifastrongerChinabelievesthattheUS'intelligencesurveillanceandreconnaissanceactivitiesinChina'sexclusiveeconomiczonesareahostileactivitythatitneedstocounter,thereistheriskofanotherincident.AhealthyChina-USrelationshipcanonlybemanagedthroughdynamicleadership,firminstitutionsandstrongconfidencebuildingmeasures.Aheadofstateshouldbeaccountableand,inaway,bepredictable.Unpredictabilityisadangeroushattowear.Itonlyaddsuncertaintyandbreedsmiscalculations.ItremainstobeseeniftheUSwillcontinueits"freedomofnavigation"operationsintheSouthChinaSeaundertheTrumpadministration.ThankstoaU-turnintherelationshipbetweenChinaandthePhilippineslargelyspearheadedbyPresidentRodrigoDuterte,thetensionsintheSouthChinaSeahavecalmeddown.AnyfurtherUSintrusionintothewatersofChina-controlledislandsorreefswillonlyshowtheUStobethetroublemaker.Likeitornot,theworldhastodealwithaTrumpasUSpresident.Butbeingunpredictablewon'tbehissecretweapon.ItwillbehisAchilles'heel.TheauthorisanhonoraryfellowwithCenterofChina-AmericanDefenseRelationsatthePLAAcademyofMilitarySciences.昨日,北京青年报记者探访发现,在网上众多网店中,购买VR眼镜获赠黄色视频几乎成为行业潜规则,一些商家以“VR眼镜可提升看片感官”为噱头进行炒作,并称这些涉黄视频中包括2D、3D和360度全景视频,甚至有卖家承诺可以加群“包(片源)永久更新”。

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